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futurist_fieldguide:gbn_approach [2015-04-03 14:33] – created maja | futurist_fieldguide:gbn_approach [2015-04-03 14:43] – alkan | ||
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The challenge of the method lies in its focus on scenario axes derived from critical uncertainties: | The challenge of the method lies in its focus on scenario axes derived from critical uncertainties: | ||
- | * reducing the number of change drivers to ~two critical uncertainties can create tension in participants (but can also work quite well in some situations, when it distills the core of the problem) | + | * reducing the number of change drivers to two critical uncertainties can create tension in participants (but can also work quite well in some situations, when it distills the core of the problem) |
* the 2x2 matrix highlights ' | * the 2x2 matrix highlights ' | ||
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Identify the most important driving forces for the outcome of your key question. You can rank them on a scale from 1--10 from least to most important. Alternatively you can use a more relative measure (e.g. drawing a horizontal line and placing the drivers from left to right: important -> very important -> extremely important -> essential. | Identify the most important driving forces for the outcome of your key question. You can rank them on a scale from 1--10 from least to most important. Alternatively you can use a more relative measure (e.g. drawing a horizontal line and placing the drivers from left to right: important -> very important -> extremely important -> essential. | ||
- | Next, identify which of the most important drivers are the most uncertain for the success of the core question from Step 1. Some drivers are likely to remain more or less fixed, constant and “certain”, like demographics, | + | Next, identify which of the most important drivers are the most uncertain for the success of the core question from Step 1. Some drivers are likely to remain more or less fixed, constant and 'certain', like demographics, |
List the drivers on a scale from most to least important and uncertain. | List the drivers on a scale from most to least important and uncertain. | ||
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Select critical uncertainties and design scenario axes | Select critical uncertainties and design scenario axes | ||
- | Select one to three (usually two) of the "most important and most uncertain" | + | Select one to three (usually two) of the 'most important and most uncertain' |
- | Think about each of these critical uncertainties as a continuum from one extreme to another. For example, if you chose "happiness" | + | Think about each of these critical uncertainties as a continuum from one extreme to another. For example, if you chose 'happiness' |
// NOTE: You can choose more than two critical uncertainties, | // NOTE: You can choose more than two critical uncertainties, | ||
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Review what would happen with each of your critical uncertainties in different scenarios. Bring different change drivers and local factors into the scenarios. What would happen to them in different worlds? How did the wider world evolve from the present to this particular future? How did your local situation change? Who are the main protagonists in this world? | Review what would happen with each of your critical uncertainties in different scenarios. Bring different change drivers and local factors into the scenarios. What would happen to them in different worlds? How did the wider world evolve from the present to this particular future? How did your local situation change? Who are the main protagonists in this world? | ||
- | In a group, come up with an outline, a ' | + | In a group, come up with an outline, a ' |
=== Step 7: Answers === | === Step 7: Answers === | ||
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- | Adapted from: http:// | + | Adapted from: Peter Schwartz, 1998, //The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World,// Wiley http:// |
- | Peter Schwartz, 1998, //The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World,// Wiley | + | |