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| future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2014-05-19 13:54] – nik | future_fabulators:scenario_methods [2017-12-15 10:32] – old revision restored (2016/05/14 23:46) nik |
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| The most rewarding moment in scenario building (in our experience) is when participants begin to recognise different scenarios as extreme versions or caricatures of their present, as if they have acquired a mysterious search-light, that can be used to illuminate different parts of an otherwise murky, entangled situation. By using appropriate scenario methods, we hope to amplify these moments of clarity that spark imagination and a pro-active engagement with the futures. We're also interested how to make the whole process more fluid, creative and mindful (of self, others and the environment). | The most rewarding moment in scenario building (in our experience) is when participants begin to recognise different scenarios as extreme versions or caricatures of their present, as if they have acquired a mysterious search-light, that can be used to illuminate different parts of an otherwise murky, entangled situation. By using appropriate scenario methods, we hope to amplify these moments of clarity that spark imagination and a pro-active engagement with the futures. We're also interested how to make the whole process more fluid, creative and mindful (of self, others and the environment). |
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| <blockquote>Methodology, though, is about more than the tools used: it involves careful attention to the stance taken by the practitioner in the use of tools to enact knowledge and understanding." -Floyd, Burns and Ramos</blockquote> | <blockquote>Methodology, though, is about more than the tools used: it involves careful attention to the stance taken by the practitioner in the use of tools to enact knowledge and understanding." -Floyd, Burns and Ramos((https://www.zotero.org/groups/future_fabulators/items/itemKey/U7XRUQAW))</blockquote> |
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| ==== Methods, comparisons ==== | ==== Methods, comparisons ==== |
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| A simple description of a scenario building process can be found in [[http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html|How to Build Scenarios]] by Lawrence Wilkinson. Interesting [[http://www.openthefuture.com/2012/08/ten_rules_for_creating_awful_s.html| Ten Rules for Creating Awful Scenarios]] by Jamais Cascio, can be used as a checklist of what NOT to do in scenario building. | A simple description of a scenario building process can be found in [[http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html|How to Build Scenarios]] by Lawrence Wilkinson. An counter-prespective can be found in [[http://www.openthefuture.com/2012/08/ten_rules_for_creating_awful_s.html| Ten Rules for Creating Awful Scenarios]] by Jamais Cascio, which provides a checklist of what NOT to do when creating scenarios. |
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| <blockquote>The paper to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. (...) Based on our review of the literature, we have discovered eight general categories (types) of scenario techniques with two to three variations for each type, resulting in more than two dozen techniques overall. There are, of course, variations of the variations." | <blockquote>The paper to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. (...) Based on our review of the literature, we have discovered eight general categories (types) of scenario techniques with two to three variations for each type, resulting in more than two dozen techniques overall. There are, of course, variations of the variations." |
| * cluster into themes | * cluster into themes |
| * after reaching the bottom layer, pick a different myth/narrative and create a scenario by moving up the other layers, up to the new events and behaviours in 'litany' | * after reaching the bottom layer, pick a different myth/narrative and create a scenario by moving up the other layers, up to the new events and behaviours in 'litany' |
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| | Image Credit: [[http://thinkingfutures.net|Thinking Futures]] |
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| === The Manoa Approach === | === The Manoa Approach === |
| [5] develop a summary metaphor or title \\ | [5] develop a summary metaphor or title \\ |
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| <html><a href="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/content_images/fig/2730110302004.png"><img src="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/content_images/fig/2730110302004.png" width="400"></a></html> <html><a href="http://www.mepss.nl/tools/w07-fig1.gif"><img src="http://www.mepss.nl/tools/w07-fig1.gif"></a></html> | <html><a href="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/content_images/fig/2730110302004.png"><img src="https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/3a/9b/40/3a9b40a34e245adbfac3d91b030afac4.jpg" width="400"></a></html> <html><a href="http://www.mepss.nl/tools/w07-fig1.gif"><img src="http://www.mepss.nl/tools/w07-fig1.gif"></a></html> |
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| === Four Generic Futures === | === Four Generic Futures === |
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| <html><a href="http://www.naturalstep.org/sites/all/files/Backcasting_AllBox.png"><img src="http://www.naturalstep.org/sites/all/files/Backcasting_AllBox.png" width="500"></a></html> | <html><a href="http://www.naturalstep.org/sites/all/files/Backcasting_AllBox.png"><img src="http://www.naturalstep.org/sites/all/files/Backcasting_AllBox.png" width="500"></a></html> |
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| | Theory of change model is essentially backcasting for specific goals: http://www.theoryofchange.org/what-is-theory-of-change/ |
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| //what are important things to focus on?// | //what are important things to focus on?// |
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| * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? | * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? |
| | * [[http://ideodesign.com.au/images/uploads/news/pdfs/FultonSuriBuchenau-Experience_PrototypingACM_8-00.pdf|experience prototyping]] |
| * [[http://ideodesign.com.au/images/uploads/news/pdfs/FultonSuriBuchenau-Experience_PrototypingACM_8-00.pdf|experience prototyping]] | * rapid prototyping, fabbing |
| * rapid prototyping, fabbing | * paper, scissors and tape |
| * ... | * ... |
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nik